What will be valuable?
Phillip Thorne (thornp2@rpi.edu)
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23 Jan 1995 17:00:32 -0500
The question, rather, is how will values _change_. Here are some
speculations:
- Raw materials
These will presumably become "cheaper," insofar as more common elements
(eg, carbon) become the primary building materials; extraction and
recycling technologies improve; and new sources (eg, asteroids) are
opened up.
However, there could still be _scarcity_, insofar as one person
suddenly wants to build a Dyson sphere and everyone else has their own
pet projects ... Drexler addresses equitable ways to allocate
resources in the face of an expanding population.
- Information
There will probably be news services, if only because, even if
everyone _could_ build personal robo-reporters, the news site would
quickly get crowded.
Plus, "royalties" on books, movies, games, etc. (But the actual
cost of physical packaging could go down)
How to avoid pirated software? Make it _hardware_; small program
cartridges that you plug into your computer, with protective
"immune systems" to prevent nano-replication.
And _someone_ will have to contribute the resources to maintain
an "internet" if such a thing is desired.
- Design software
Software (or possibly, hardware insofar as giant "brains" get built)
for advanced design (as opposed to building a simple coffee mug with
no nanoscale components) would be valuable. Software for designing
for effective design software would be even more valuable. (Look
at the cost of CAD and CASE systems today)
- Authentic merchandise
As opposed to "replicated down to the atomic scale." But how to
_ensure_ it was hand-built? Probably the best way is to sit there
and _watch_ the craftsperson carve your Louis XV replica chair.
I can't think of a way to guarantee the authenticity of pre-NT
antiques, except to keep a 24-hour guard on them from now to forever.
- Authentic physical skill
As opposed to nano-augmented neuromuscular systems. There could
be separate leagues for "naturalist" athletes, marching bands, etc.
There'd have to be some verification process to ensure you didn't
just "pump up" with nano, then purge them from your system. Again,
watching them _during_ training could be the fun part. (Orcas spend
a lot of time perfecting elaborate synchronized play, then abandon
the routines)
- Housing space
Depending on where you want to live, and what sort of population
boom/bust occurs. There's planetary surfaces (possibly terraformed),
orbital colonies, "supermondane planets" (build a shell around a
gravity source; see _Analog_), and live-in-VR (if you're a
disembodied intellect).
- Desirable real estate
Beachfront property, mountain landscapes outside the kitchen
window ... unless you like VR.
Of course, terraforming could be employed to landscape as many
golf courses and extra beaches as necessary -- unless it was
decided that this would upset all the wildlife.
- Personal service by humans
Real chefs, valets, butlers, maitre d's, and so on. I can't imagine
that anyone would _want_ to be a housekeeper if self-cleaning
houses are built, but I suppose feather-dusting could actually
become a novelty.
Storytellers, stage actors, teachers, clergypeople, counselors ...
some positions in these fields might be taken by AIs, but I don't
think all of them would be.
- Exotic vacation destinations
The travel and hotel expenses may drop, but the location itself will
still be desirable; the Taj Mahal, the Eiffel Tower, Maya pyramids.
- Energy
Much the same analysis as for (1) Raw Materials.
--
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= PHILLIP THORNE, <thornp2@rpi.edu> URL: http://www.rpi.edu/~thornp2 =
= RENSSELAER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE (Always under construction!) =
= TROY, NEW YORK, USA "It's the boundary conditions that get you." =
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