In article <3fmkn0$5f8@planchet.rutgers.edu>,
Ralph Merkle <merkle@parc.xerox.com> writes:
: In "The Risks of Nanotechnology" published in "Nanotechnology,
: Research and Perspectives" (B.C. Crandall and James Lewis, editors,
: MIT press 1992), I argued that the development of (a) artificial
: self-replicating systems (b) able to function in a natural environment
: and which are (c) designed to evolve; appears both very difficult and
: extraordinarily dangerous.
:
: It would seem prudent, when the ability to develop such systems is
: imminent, to be prepared to establish an appropriate regulatory
: framework to prevent the rather obvious risks that are in principle
: possible. This would likely include mechanisms to prevent the
: development and uncontrolled release of such systems.
:
: I hope it is clear that the use of evolutionary principles in the
: design of systems should not normally pose any extraordinary risks,
: and hence it would be inappropriate to regulate such activities. When
: we combine points (a), (b) and (c) above, however, appropriate
: regulation would seem desirable.
I can see of no way to impose any "appropriate regulation" that would not require a world-wide (solar-system wide?) police-state. Nanotechnology, by its very nature, would provide any person enormous computational power along with considerable "real-world" modelling tools. And these capabilities are likely to be the first ones needed and therefore generally available at the beginning of the nanotech revolution. Even a naive but intelligent person could create dangerous systems that meet criteria (a) and (b). Using "brute-force" computational algorithms in nanosystems would be adequate to find dangerous self-replicating systems. I see no easy solution to the dangers in nanotechnology - using regulatory systems as we know them today would be like a child holding back the incoming tide on a beach with a small plastic bucket.
What, short of a police state (aided by nano-cops?), will stop the millions of intrepid experimenters in their homes and shops from working on selfreplicating systems? If you are counting on the difficulty of the task, or regulations, I think you are placing your bet on a losing proposition.
[On the other hand, what keeps people from doing the same with biotech right now? There are several advantages: it exists;is known to work; techniques are published; and the raw materials, working self-reproducing and evolving systems using molecular machinery, are literally at your fingertips. One good answer is a hint for the future: It's much more advantageous, in terms of money payoff, for the person who has the knowledge, skill, and motivation to do it alone, to do it for money, with help, and create cures rather than diseases. --JoSH]